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During the structuring stage the variable under consideration is clearly defined. This is very important. Spetzler and Stael von Holstein suggest that a good test to apply to any given definition is: could a clairvoyant reveal the value of the variable by specifying a single number and without requesting further clarification? A scale for measuring the variable which is familiar to the subject should also be chosen at this stage. During the conditioning phase the analyst finds out what the subject is going to base his judgements on and cognitive biases are, wherever possible, nipped in the bud.

Eventually, by continuing to compare the unknown subjective probability with different known frequency probabilities you should be able to determine his value for the subjective probability reasonably accurately. Of course there is no reason why two different people should make the same subjective probability estimate for a manned landing on Mars by AD 2000 (or indeed for any other uncertain event). In this sense, subjective probabilities are different from frequency-based probabilities and it is important that when subjective probabilities are used in practice they are assessed by those managers with most knowledge and experience.

M % A possible probability distribution for the variable market share. A rigorous definition of a probability distribution would be as follows: A probability distribution is a curve such that the area under the curve between two points is equal to the probability of the variable lying between those two points. Thus the shaded area in Fig. I represents the probability of the market share lying between 10% and 11%. Sometimes probability distributions can be based on past data. However, when major capital investment opportunities are being analysed the situation is usually completely different from any previously encountered by the company and no data are available.

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A Framework for Discussing Normative Theories of Business Et


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